SERIES PREVIEW: FISHERS (4-5) vs NOBLESVILLE (5-4)
Series of the Week Preview
Each week, Crossroads Report will spotlight a Series of the Week—a matchup with meaningful implications for the Hoosier Crossroads Conference race.
We’ll break down what’s at stake, look at recent series history, highlight key players, and identify the storylines that could shape the outcome.
One thing we value at Crossroads Report is using data to objectively analyze teams and players, and this weekly feature is no exception. We’ve developed a proprietary simulation model that evaluates team strength—particularly projected pitching matchups—to estimate the likelihood of each series outcome, whether that’s a sweep by either team or a split.
Each series is simulated 1,000 times to generate probability-based projections.
As with any model, the output is only as reliable as the data behind it. Early in the season, results may be more volatile, but as more games are played and more information becomes available, the projections will become increasingly stable and predictive.
We hope you enjoy this weekly feature as much as we’ve enjoyed building it.
Recent Series History
These two programs have owned the HCC over the past four seasons, combining to win or share every conference title since 2021. Fishers claimed titles in 2022 and 2025, while Noblesville went back-to-back in 2023 and 2024.
On the field, the rivalry has been as even as it gets. Since 2021, the teams have split their meetings 5–5, with each side trading conference sweeps over the past two seasons. Last year, Fishers edged both games in tightly contested matchups, winning 4–2 and 2–1.
What Is at Stake
The short answer: positioning in the conference title race.
Fishers opened HCC play with a loaded stretch, facing Zionsville and Noblesville right out of the gate. A sweep here would be a massive early statement—especially after splitting with Zionsville—and would put the Tigers in control with a clear path to defending their title. Drop both, and the margin for error tightens considerably.
For Noblesville, the stakes are just as clear. A sweep keeps them firmly at the top of a crowded field and in control of their own path, even with a challenging schedule still ahead. A split keeps them in strong position this early in the season. But getting swept would make the climb more difficult, even if not insurmountable.
At the end of the day, the HCC race is defined by one thing:
Sweeps.
Championship teams stack them—and just as importantly, avoid getting swept.
Because in this league…
Sweeps don’t just help you—they bury everyone else.
Key Players and Matchups
Game 1: Elite Lefties
Game 1 could showcase two of the top left-handed arms in the state in seniors Beckett Doane (Noblesville) and Owen Lukac (Fishers). According to Prep Baseball Report, Doane is ranked No. 1 and Lukac No. 5 among left-handed pitchers in Indiana’s 2026 class.
Both have taken steps forward in efficiency from 2025 and have the ability to generate outs on their own. Doane is striking out hitters at a dominant 1.8 K/IP clip, while Lukac sits around 1.0 K/IP.
Each, however, comes with a potential vulnerability.
Lukac has allowed a .346 opponent batting average so far this season, while Doane has limited hitters to just .175—but at times struggles with command, issuing nearly a walk per inning. How those trends hold up could ultimately decide Game 1.
Despite their talent, both enter the matchup with higher ERAs than expected—Doane at 4.20 and Lukac at 6.36—suggesting there’s still some volatility in play.
Game 2: Depth and Decisions
Game 2 is more defined on the Noblesville side, where junior right-hander Eli Hall is the likely starter.
For Fishers, things are less certain. Hayden Werner has yet to appear this season, and if available, would provide a significant boost. For now, Fishers is projected to go with Strole, who started in the Zionsville series.
Hall, ranked No. 5 among right-handed pitchers in his class by PBR, has been dominant early. He carries a 1.00 ERA across three appearances and leads the HCC with 21 strikeouts in 14 innings. Opponents are hitting just .180 against him.
Strole, while unranked as a pitcher (but highly regarded as a position player), has quietly taken on a significant workload. After throwing just 6 innings in 2025, he leads Fishers in innings this season and has been effective limiting traffic, holding opponents to a .280 OBP with a 12:5 K:BB ratio and a 1.75 ERA.
Bullpen Factor
A series sweep on either side may ultimately come down to the bullpen—and once again, the status of Hayden Werner could be a major swing factor.
Noblesville has shown reliable depth behind its starters. Junior RHP Griffin Snider has been effective with 16 strikeouts to just 2 walks and a 1.62 ERA over 8.2 innings, while senior LHP Ethan Kang has yet to allow an earned run this season.
Fishers counters with a deep and flexible bullpen. Juniors Grant Wolf—who picked up the save against Zionsville—and Austin Conley lead a group of left-handers that also includes sophomore Luke Benefiel. The Tigers also leaned on Jerry Jaramillo in both games of the Zionsville series.
With both teams capable of mixing and matching out of the bullpen, late-inning execution could be the difference between a split and a sweep.
Offensive Side
While both teams feature high-end pitching, those arms will be tested by talent throughout each lineup.
Fishers is led by Carter Strole, who enters the series hitting .464 with 11 runs scored, 11 RBI, and five doubles. Ethan Buelt has also been a key contributor, batting .391 with nine hits and ten runs scored.
Noblesville counters with a balanced and productive group. Senior Aiden Reynolds leads the way, hitting .407 with 11 hits, nine RBI, and a home run. Christian Penaloza and Brooks Riggs have each gone deep once, hitting .385 and .350 respectively, with Penaloza posting a team-leading 1.275 OPS.
Fishers enters averaging 6.6 runs per game compared to Noblesville’s 5.8. However, that gap is offset on the defensive side, where Noblesville has been dominant—allowing just 2.1 runs per game while recording three shutouts in its first nine contests.
While Fishers may hold a slight edge in raw production, Noblesville’s ability to limit scoring has been a defining factor—and could prove just as important in this series.
Model Projection
With that context in mind, we turn to the simulation to see how these matchups are expected to play out.
Using our model, we ran this series 1,000 times based on current offensive production and projected pitching usage for both teams.
Game Outlook
In Game 1, the model reflects the impact of the frontline starters, with Noblesville holding a clear edge behind its top-end arm. Fishers remains competitive, but Noblesville’s ability to limit damage gives them the advantage in the majority of simulations.
Game 2 follows a similar pattern. While pitching depth becomes more of a factor, Noblesville continues to maintain the edge, with run prevention and depth tilting the matchup in their favor.
Simulation Results
Game 1 Win %
Noblesville: 69.3%
Fishers: 30.7%
Game 2 Win %
Noblesville: 81.8%
Fishers: 18.2%
Series Outcomes
Noblesville sweep: 59.5%
Fishers sweep: 8.1%
Split: 32.4%
What It Means
The model points to Noblesville as a strong favorite, with a sweep emerging as the most likely outcome.
That projection is driven by a clear advantage in the Game 1 pitching matchup and the ability to carry that edge into Game 2.
For Fishers, the path to flipping the series is narrow but realistic:
Steal Game 1
Capitalize early
Avoid giving away free bases
Despite the projections, nearly one-third of simulations result in a split—reinforcing how little margin separates these teams.
The numbers lean heavily toward Noblesville—but in a rivalry like this, it only takes one swing, one inning, or one mistake to change everything.