Power Rankings after Week 3
Conference play takes center stage as the model begins to shift
Three weeks into the season, the picture is starting to come into focus—but it’s not fully clear just yet.
With multiple conference series now in the books, the weight of HCC performance is beginning to separate teams more than preseason expectations. The result? A leaderboard that reflects both what teams were expected to be—and what they’ve actually shown so far.
Here’s how things stack up this week:
1. Noblesville (6–5, 3-1) – Current Rating: 66.12
Noblesville moves into the top spot by doing exactly what the model is now prioritizing—winning in conference play.
At 3–1 in the HCC with a strong +2.5 average run differential in those games, the Millers have paired solid overall performance with results where it matters most. While their overall record may not jump off the page, their balance across categories—win percentage, run differential, and conference success—makes them the most complete profile right now.
Takeaway: The Millers are stacking the right kind of wins.
2. Westfield (5–4–1, 3-1) – Current Rating: 64.22
Westfield is right on Noblesville’s heels, and arguably has one of the strongest underlying profiles in the conference.
Like Noblesville, the Shamrocks sit at 3–1 in HCC play, but what stands out is their strength of record. Westfield has navigated a solid schedule and produced the best HCC run differential among the top teams. While their overall run differential is modest, they’ve delivered in key spots.
Takeaway: Quietly building one of the most reliable resumes in the HCC.
3. Hamilton Southeastern (9–2, 4-0) – Current Rating: 63.66
No team has been more impressive in the win column than Hamilton Southeastern.
The Royals are a perfect 4–0 in HCC play and own the best overall record in the conference. So why not #1? The answer lies in strength of schedule and preseason weighting. HSE entered the season with a lower baseline and has yet to face the same level of competition as some others near the top.
That said, the gap is closing quickly.
Takeaway: The results are undeniable—now it’s about sustaining it against stronger competition.
4. Zionsville (7–5, 1-3) – Current Rating: 55.80
Zionsville remains one of the more intriguing teams in the conference.
The Eagles still benefit from a strong preseason rating and a respectable overall record, but conference play has been a different story. A 1–3 mark in HCC games, along with a negative conference run differential, has pulled them back into the middle of the pack.
Takeaway: Talent is there, but HCC performance must improve.
5. Fishers (5–6, 2-2) – Current Rating: 52.31
Fishers continues to be one of the toughest teams to evaluate—and one of the most dangerous.
Despite sitting below .500, the Tigers own the strongest schedule in the conference by a wide margin. Their strength of record reflects that, keeping them firmly in the mix even without the wins to match.
If those results start to come, expect a quick climb.
Takeaway: Better than their record—and still very much a factor.
6. Brownsburg (2–4, 1-3) – Current Rating: 28.22
Brownsburg has yet to find consistency early in the season.
A losing record, negative run differential, and limited success in conference play have kept them near the bottom of the rankings. With a small sample size, there’s still time to turn things around—but the margin for error is shrinking.
Takeaway: Needs momentum, and soon.
7. Avon (3–5–1, 1-3) – Current Rating: 22.09
Avon has struggled to gain traction through the first few weeks.
The Orioles have been unable to generate positive run differential, particularly in conference play, where they’ve been outscored consistently. While flashes have been there, they haven’t translated into sustained success.
Takeaway: Searching for consistency.
8. Franklin Central (5–5, 1-3) – Current Rating: 18.35
Franklin Central’s .500 record doesn’t tell the full story.
A low preseason rating combined with a 1–3 HCC record and a negative conference run differential has kept the Flashes at the bottom of the rankings. While there have been encouraging signs, the overall profile still lags behind the rest of the conference.
Takeaway: Competitive, but still building.
Biggest Mover: Hamilton Southeastern
Hamilton Southeastern makes the biggest move this week, climbing into the top three behind a perfect 4–0 start in HCC play and a conference-best 9–2 overall record.
The Royals are doing everything you want to see—winning consistently, limiting damage on the mound, and taking care of business in conference series. While strength of schedule and preseason weighting are still keeping them just outside the top spot, the gap is shrinking quickly.
On the Radar to Take #1: If HSE continues this pace—especially against stronger competition—they won’t just be climbing, they’ll be sitting at the top.
Biggest Drop: Zionsville
Zionsville slides this week as conference play begins to outweigh preseason expectations.
Despite a solid overall record, a 1–3 mark in HCC play and a negative conference run differential have pulled the Eagles back into the middle of the pack. The preseason profile still provides some cushion, but that margin is shrinking fast.
Zionsville remains dangerous, but the model is now asking a simple question: can they win in conference?
What We’re Learning
Conference play is beginning to define the HCC landscape.
Teams that are winning—and winning convincingly—in conference games are rising quickly, while those struggling in HCC matchups are starting to fall behind regardless of preseason expectations.
Final Thought
The model is starting to shift from projection to reality.
Preseason expectations still play a role, but each passing week puts more weight on results—especially within the conference. With several key series ahead, the separation at the top is far from settled.