HCC Power Rankings 5/4/2026

HCC POWER RANKINGS – WEEK OF MAY 4

The Separation Is Here—And It’s Not Subtle

For weeks, the message from the numbers was the same: no clear favorite.

That’s no longer the case.

After four full conference series, the model is no longer searching for the top team—it’s found one. And more importantly, it’s starting to draw a clear line between contenders, pretenders, and everyone in between.

1. Noblesville (12–7, 7–1 HCC) — 63.09

There’s no debate this week.

Noblesville hasn’t just separated—they’ve created distance.

A 7–1 conference record paired with a +4.00 HCC run differential tells the story of a team that isn’t surviving games… they’re controlling them. Add in a strong overall profile (+3.3 average run differential, solid SOS/SOR), and you get the most complete résumé in the conference.

The path to a conference title is now clearly in front of them. That doesn’t mean it’s easy—but it does mean it’s theirs to lose.

2. Zionsville (12–7, 4–4 HCC) — 47.59

This is where things get interesting.

Zionsville still carries the strongest preseason profile in the conference, and the model hasn’t completely let go of that belief. A solid strength of schedule and résumé metrics (SOR) continue to support their position.

But the reality is simple:
4–4 in conference play with a modest +1.75 HCC run differential isn’t matching that expectation.

Right now, Zionsville sits in a strange spot—respected by the model, but still needing to prove it where it matters most.

3. Westfield (7–8–1, 4–4 HCC) — 40.33

Westfield might be the most misleading team at first glance.

A sub-.500 record doesn’t jump off the page, but a top-tier strength of record (15.53) suggests they’ve been tested as much as anyone. Their conference profile is steady (4–4, +1.25 RD), even if it hasn’t translated into separation.

This is a team that’s still very much in the mix—but running out of time to turn “competitive” into “dangerous.”

4. Avon (8–9–1, 4–4 HCC) — 34.51

Avon continues to trend upward.

Now sitting squarely in the middle of the conference, the Orioles have built a balanced profile across the board. There’s no single dominant metric—but there’s also no glaring weakness.

That’s what makes Avon dangerous.

They may not control games like the top teams—but they’re capable of flipping a series against anyone.

5. Fishers (8–11, 4–4 HCC) — 31.93

Fishers sits right in the middle of the standings with a 4–4 conference record, but inconsistency has defined their season to this point.

A negative run differential (-0.6) reflects a team that has struggled to control games, even in wins. Still, their strength of schedule and résumé metrics suggest they’ve been tested as much as anyone in the conference.

The results haven’t fully followed—but the opportunity is still there.

6. Hamilton Southeastern (12–7, 5–3 HCC) — 31.14

This is the most telling ranking on the board.

At 12–7 overall and 5–3 in conference play, HSE looks like a top-tier team on paper.

The model disagrees.

A -1.88 HCC run differential* is the red flag. It suggests a team that’s winning games—but not controlling them. Close wins, tight margins, and little room for error.

That doesn’t mean HSE isn’t dangerous. It means the margin between winning and losing is thinner than it appears.

7. Brownsburg (5–7, 3–5 HCC) — 22.74

Brownsburg remains on the outside looking in.

A 3–5 conference record and negative run differential (-1.63) reflect a team that has struggled to keep pace. While their résumé metrics remain respectable, they haven’t translated into consistent results.

Time is becoming the biggest opponent.

8. Franklin Central (8–9, 1–7 HCC) — 4.93

Franklin Central rounds out the rankings.

A 1–7 conference record and -4.13 HCC run differential point to a team that has had difficulty competing within the conference. Despite a near .500 overall record, the gap in HCC play has been significant.

Biggest Mover: Noblesville

This isn’t about moving up a spot—it’s about creating separation.

Noblesville didn’t just maintain the top position this week—they expanded the gap between themselves and the rest of the conference. A 7–1 HCC record paired with a dominant +4.00 run differential has taken them from “one of several contenders” to the clear team to beat.

For weeks, the model suggested a crowded race at the top. Now, it’s saying something different:
there’s Noblesville… and then there’s everyone else.

Biggest Question: Hamilton Southeastern

What exactly is HSE?

On paper, the Royals look like a contender: 12–7 overall, 5–3 in conference play. That’s a résumé that should place them near the top.

But the underlying numbers tell a different story.

A -1.88 HCC run differential* suggests a team that’s consistently playing close games—and relying on narrow margins to win.

Are they a team that knows how to win tight games?
Or a team that’s been living on the edge?

With key series ahead, that answer is coming soon.

*Run differential caps at 10 runs in a game

Final Thought

For the first time this season, the numbers are aligned on one thing:

There is a team to beat.

Noblesville has created separation—not just in the standings, but in how they’re winning games.

Behind them, the race is still wide open.
But the difference now?

Everyone else is chasing.