HCC Power Rankings Update (5/12/2026)
HCC Power Rankings Update
This week’s rankings were probably the toughest yet to evaluate. Not because there was a clear disagreement at the top, but because the conference race itself has become increasingly difficult to separate. Four teams remain within striking distance entering the final stretch, and this week’s results forced a recalibration of the model itself.
One thing readers may notice immediately: the raw rating scores across the board dropped compared to previous weeks. That is intentional.
As the season progresses, the model gradually reduces the weight of preseason expectations and places more emphasis on what teams are actually doing on the field. Early in the season, preseason projections help stabilize small sample sizes. By mid-May, however, those projections are designed to fade into the background while current performance, conference results, strength of schedule, and recent form take over.
In simple terms: the numbers are shrinking because the “starting credit” from March is disappearing.
This week also marks the introduction of a new Recent Form component to the model. Recent results — especially against high-quality opponents — now carry additional weight. The adjustment is intentionally modest, but it allows the model to better account for surging teams, head-to-head outcomes, and the reality that who a team was in early April may not fully reflect who they are today.
With that in mind, here are this week’s Crossroads Report HCC Power Rankings.
1. Hamilton Southeastern
Record: 17–7 | HCC: 7–3 | Rating: 49.16
The Royals move into the top spot after the biggest statement week of the HCC season.
HSE’s sweep of Noblesville did more than shake up the conference standings. It also gave the model the exact kind of recent, high-quality result that needed to be recognized. The Royals now sit tied at the top of the HCC standings, own the best overall record in the conference, and carry the strongest recent form score in this week’s rankings.
What keeps this from being a runaway No. 1 is the efficiency profile. HSE’s conference run differential remains negative, which tells the model the Royals have won close and taken damage in a few losses. But at some point, results matter. And right now, no team in the conference has a better combination of record, conference position, and recent resume.
2. Noblesville
Record: 14–9 | HCC: 7–3 | Rating: 49.06
The Millers fall one spot, but barely.
The difference between HSE and Noblesville in the ratings is almost nonexistent, which feels appropriate given the full body of work. Noblesville still owns the strongest run differential profile in the conference, remains tied for first in the standings, and continues to grade well across nearly every category.
The sweep by HSE matters, and the new recent form component reflects that. But the model is not designed to erase an entire season because of one series. Noblesville’s larger profile remains strong enough to keep them essentially even with HSE entering the final stretch.
This is less of a “drop” and more of a recalibration. The Millers are still very much in the center of the title race.
3. Westfield
Record: 11–8–1 | HCC: 6–4 | Rating: 48.06
Westfield remains right on the heels of the top two.
The Shamrocks continue to have one of the most interesting profiles in the conference. Their overall record does not jump off the page the way HSE’s does, and they do not have Noblesville’s statistical dominance, but the model continues to reward their balance, recent form, and strength of record.
This ranking may still create some debate, but it is not hard to understand why Westfield remains this high. They are 6–4 in the HCC, have a positive conference run differential, and continue to stack enough quality results to stay firmly in the title conversation.
The gap between No. 1 and No. 3 is tiny. That says more about the race than it does about any one team.
4. Fishers
Record: 11–12 | HCC: 6–4 | Rating: 35.97
Fishers remains the classic “better than the record” team.
The Tigers are under .500 overall, but context matters. They have played the toughest schedule in the conference, own the top strength of record number in the league, and sit at 6–4 in HCC play. That is not a bottom-half resume, even if the raw win-loss record makes it look that way at first glance.
The model continues to see Fishers as dangerous because the Tigers have held up against a difficult slate. They are not in the same tier as the top three this week, but they remain comfortably ahead of the next group.
5. Brownsburg
Record: 8–9 | HCC: 5–5 | Rating: 33.36
Brownsburg jumps ahead of Zionsville this week because the recent form adjustment matters.
The Bulldogs have been uneven overall, but they are sitting at .500 in conference play and have picked up enough recent value to move into the fifth spot. Their profile is not flashy, and the run differential numbers still hold them back, but they remain competitive in the middle of the league.
At this point, Brownsburg feels like one of those teams that can make life miserable for anyone above them. Maybe not a favorite, but absolutely a problem.
6. Zionsville
Record: 12–11 | HCC: 4–6 | Rating: 30.82
Zionsville continues to be the model’s biggest tug-of-war.
The Eagles still carry strong preseason value, solid overall run differential, and a strong schedule profile. But the actual HCC results continue to drag them down. At 4–6 in conference play, there is only so much the predictive side of the model can do.
This is where the fading preseason factor matters. Earlier in the year, Zionsville’s preseason score helped stabilize their ranking. Now, with more than 20 games played, the model is asking for current results. The ceiling is still there, but the resume has not fully matched it.
7. Avon
Record: 9–12–1 | HCC: 4–6 | Rating: 22.73
Avon remains competitive, but the recent form adjustment pushed the Orioles down this week.
The overall profile is not without positives. Avon has a positive overall run differential and has played a respectable schedule. But at 4–6 in the league with a negative recent factor, the model sees more inconsistency than upward momentum.
The Orioles are still capable of changing the shape of the race, but they need a stronger finish to climb back into the middle tier.
8. Franklin Central
Record: 9–12 | HCC: 1–9 | Rating: 4.67
Franklin Central remains eighth, mostly because the HCC schedule has been unforgiving.
The Flashes’ overall record is not dramatically different from a few teams above them, but the conference profile is the separator. At 1–9 in HCC play with a large negative conference run differential, the model has them clearly behind the rest of the field.
Still, the overall record shows this is not a team simply going through the motions. The league has just been brutal, and the numbers reflect that.