HCC End of Week Update (5/10/2026)
HCC End of Week Update (5/10/2026)
HSE beat the model and swept Noblesville to force a tie atop the HCC standings at 7–3 with five of the seven conference series now completed.
Our model gave the Royals just a 19% chance to sweep the series, but HSE delivered behind dominant pitching in Game 1 and an explosive offensive performance in Game 2. Spencer Mohr set the tone with a one-hit complete game in a 5–2 victory Thursday, and the Royals followed it up Friday with an 11-hit attack in a 7–5 win to complete the sweep.
In both games, one explosive inning completely shifted momentum in HSE’s favor. In Game 2, after a leadoff strikeout, the Royals rattled off six consecutive hits — all singles — to plate five runs and put Noblesville on its heels early.
The Millers made one final push in the seventh when back-to-back walks set the stage for Aiden Reynolds’ second home run of the day, cutting the deficit to two. But the Royals shut the door from there to secure the sweep and pull even with Noblesville in the conference race.
The impact of the sweep reaches far beyond simply creating a tie at the top of the standings. Fishers (6–4) now sits only one game back of first place, while Westfield (5–4) remains 1.5 games behind with its postponed Game 2 against Zionsville now scheduled for Monday.
The sweep didn’t just reshape the top of the standings — it completely reopened the HCC title race. With only two conference series remaining for most teams, every game now carries major implications, and for the first time all season, the math behind the race is starting to become clear.
HCC TITLE RACE: WHO IS STILL ALIVE?
The HCC standings entering the next set of games:
Hamilton Southeastern 7–3
Noblesville 7–3
Fishers 6–4
Westfield 5–4
Brownsburg 5–5
Zionsville 4–5
Avon 4–6
Franklin Central 1–9
Westfield and Zionsville still have one unfinished game remaining in their current series, giving both teams an extra conference game compared to the rest of the field.
That unfinished game matters — because mathematically, the race is not over for as many teams as you might think.
Officially Eliminated
Franklin Central
Franklin Central is the first team officially eliminated from HCC title contention.
At 1–9, the Flashes can finish with no more than five conference wins. Since both Noblesville and Hamilton Southeastern already own seven victories, Franklin Central can no longer catch first place.
The rest of the conference? Still technically alive.
The Teams That Control Their Own Destiny
Noblesville (7–3)
The Millers remain in strong position despite the sweep by HSE tightening the race at the top.
What makes Noblesville dangerous is not just the record — it’s the remaining schedule:
Brownsburg
Zionsville
That means the Millers directly control whether two other contenders can climb back into the race. If Noblesville handles business, it naturally eliminates opportunities for teams chasing them.
The path is difficult, but straightforward: win series and stay on top.
Hamilton Southeastern (7–3)
There may not be a team in the conference with a cleaner remaining path.
The Royals close with:
Westfield
Franklin Central
That matters because HSE avoids both Noblesville and Fishers while also drawing an already-eliminated Franklin Central squad.
If the Royals sweep Westfield this week, the pressure shifts heavily onto everyone else.
The Dangerous Chaser
Fishers (6–4)
Fishers may quietly hold the most favorable remaining path among the teams chasing first place.
The Tigers finish with:
Franklin Central
Brownsburg
If Fishers takes care of business, a 10-win finish is absolutely in play.
That scenario would force both Noblesville and HSE to continue winning nearly every remaining game.
Fishers may currently sit one game back, but the Tigers are far from out of this race.
The Swing Teams
Westfield (5–4)
Westfield still has one additional game remaining due to the unfinished Zionsville series.
That gives the Shamrocks a little extra life mathematically, but this upcoming series with HSE feels enormous.
A strong week keeps Westfield firmly in the race.
A poor week likely shifts Westfield from contender to scoreboard-watching mode.
Brownsburg (5–5)
The Bulldogs remain mathematically alive, but their road is brutal:
Noblesville
Fishers
There is very little margin left.
The good news? Brownsburg still gets direct shots at contenders.
The bad news? The Bulldogs probably need to win almost all of them.
Hanging By a Thread
Zionsville (4–5)
The Eagles are still alive because of the unfinished Westfield game, but the margin is razor thin.
Even if Zionsville survives this week, the road ahead still includes Noblesville.
One more stumble likely ends realistic hopes.
Avon (4–6)
Avon technically remains alive mathematically, but the Orioles now need significant help across the conference.
The remaining schedule:
Zionsville
Westfield
Even a perfect finish likely requires multiple teams above them collapsing.
The Biggest Immediate Game
The unfinished Westfield-Zionsville game may suddenly carry massive implications for the conference race.
If Westfield wins:
The Shamrocks move to 6–4
Zionsville falls to 4–6
Zionsville’s realistic hopes nearly disappear
If Zionsville wins:
Both teams stay within striking distance
The middle of the standings remains crowded
Chaos continues
And in a season where the HCC has delivered almost nonstop chaos?
That feels fitting.